Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008152 0.009199 0.010347 0.011701 0.013259 0.014997 0.017091
2024-10-20 0.006239 0.007590 0.009201 0.011275 0.013891 0.017102 0.021377
2024-10-27 0.005229 0.006679 0.008506 0.010998 0.014344 0.018729 0.024988
2024-11-03 0.004636 0.006159 0.008167 0.011041 0.015107 0.020736 0.029273
2024-11-10 0.004321 0.005944 0.008171 0.011499 0.016433 0.023621 0.035147
2024-11-17 0.003878 0.005491 0.007777 0.011319 0.016786 0.025100 0.039092
2024-11-24 0.003572 0.005193 0.007562 0.011358 0.017440 0.027076 0.044058
2024-12-01 0.003246 0.004829 0.007205 0.011125 0.017618 0.028288 0.047893
2024-12-08 0.003075 0.004680 0.007155 0.011362 0.018569 0.030863 0.054445
2024-12-15 0.002870 0.004458 0.006966 0.011345 0.019078 0.032724 0.059958
2024-12-22 0.002594 0.004098 0.006521 0.010846 0.018683 0.032917 0.062300
2024-12-29 0.002431 0.003910 0.006340 0.010783 0.019053 0.034542 0.067697
2025-01-05 0.002385 0.003916 0.006498 0.011352 0.020692 0.038851 0.079499
2025-01-12 0.002179 0.003636 0.006139 0.010947 0.020434 0.039421 0.083425
2025-01-19 0.002017 0.003418 0.005869 0.010679 0.020408 0.040445 0.088530
2025-01-26 0.001915 0.003299 0.005768 0.010721 0.021007 0.042854 0.097285
2025-02-02 0.001877 0.003291 0.005867 0.011163 0.022488 0.047374 0.112042
2025-02-09 0.001762 0.003132 0.005670 0.010990 0.022629 0.048906 0.119527
2025-02-16 0.001683 0.003034 0.005581 0.011027 0.023234 0.051593 0.130589
2025-02-23 0.001580 0.002884 0.005377 0.010802 0.023216 0.052780 0.137752
2025-03-02 0.001535 0.002842 0.005385 0.011031 0.024275 0.056758 0.153700
2025-03-09 0.001467 0.002751 0.005286 0.011015 0.024748 0.059325 0.166038
2025-03-16 0.001358 0.002570 0.004990 0.010532 0.024035 0.058707 0.168461